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Unsettled Weather on the Horizon

30 December 2016   Dr. Curtis James
The weekend will bring a chance of rain and maybe even snow.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

Forecast models for this weekend are backing off on the intensity and timing of the two storm systems. The first storm system will move into Arizona from the southwest and bring a chance of rain showers on Friday – Saturday (especially Friday night). The second storm will not be as cold as previously anticipated, and will likely bring another round of rain showers possibly mixed with wet snow showers on Sunday. Total precipitation accumulation Friday – Sunday will be from 0.25 – 0.50”. 

Weather will remain unsettled for the first half of next week, for perhaps a slight possibility of light rain or snow showers (especially on Monday). Little or no rain/snow accumulation is expected for the first half of next week.  

C. James


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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