High pressure will persist for at least the next week, mainly centered to our north over the Great Basin and create warmer-than-normal temperatures and easterly winds aloft. The lower atmosphere will remain somewhat moist and unstable enough for at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms over Yavapai County in the afternoon – early evening hours each day. Thunderstorms that trigger over the Mogollon Rim or the Black Hills will be able to propagate southwestward at 5-10 mph across Yavapai County in the late afternoon or evening hours. The light easterly winds aloft will create enough wind shear, especially on Tuesday, for some of the storms to organize into multicellular storms or lines moving in from the east or northeast.
Below is a map of precipitation totals for the past week, including the rainfall from Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Louisiana. Over 20 inches of rain has fallen in some places and forecasts indicate some areas may receive 10 or more inches of additional rainfall.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast