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Monsoon Storms Possible This Week

13 August 2018   Dr. Curtis James
It might dry out a little today and tomorrow, but a chance of storms continues.
Forecast Discussion: Slight drying is expected over northern Arizona today and especially tomorrow, as the high pressure system aloft swings back across the state. This will limit thunderstorm activity, especially on Tuesday, but a slight chance of thunderstorms will still continue. There will be marginally enough vertical shear for some isolated stronger thunderstorms, some with strong gusty wind and possibly large hail. The main threat will be local floods from relatively slow moving storms fed by west to northwesterly winds at low levels and easterly to southeasterly winds at mid levels. By Wednesday, the high pressure will become situated near the AZ/NM border, allowing additional moisture will surge across the state on Wednesday through Friday for a good chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. The shear will remain strong enough for isolated severe storms Wednesday through Friday, with potential for flash flooding from slow-moving storms. Storm motion this week will generally be toward the northwest or southwest at about 5 mph, but the anvil clouds will spread toward the southeast with the upper-level winds, this will keep conditions generally sunny in Yavapai County in the mornings and early afternoon until thunderstorms develop and move in the Prescott area. Some drying possible this coming weekend as the high pressure aloft swings back to the west of Arizona and a burst of drier northwesterly wind could limit thunderstorm development on Saturday – Sunday. C. James