Thunderstorms Possible Today-Thursday, Wet Winter Ahead

04 September 2018   Dr. Curtis James
A wetter-than-normal winter could be in store for the Prescott area.

Forecast Discussion:

Expect an ongoing chance of airmass showers or thunderstorms today and tomorrow (and possibly even on Thursday) as the air will remain marginally moist and unstable enough for thunderstorms. Vertical shear and steering flow is weak, so expect scattered single-cell thunderstorms that develop and propagate northeastward at about 5 mph. The main threats will be occasional lightning, local downpours, and small hail.

By Thursday or Friday, the chance for thundershowers will diminish due to high pressure building over the West Coast that will direct dry northwesterly wind across Arizona and dry things out again. Temperatures will also climb back up to the mid 80s or higher by the weekend with high pressure to our west.

Next Monday or Tuesday, long-range forecasts are indicating the potential for the high pressure to build into the Four Corners region, which could help to bring monsoon moisture back into the area for isolated to scattered showers early next week (confidence is currently low on this possibility, as there has been considerable uncertainty in the forecasts.) The long range predictions are for drier and warmer than normal conditions for the next 1-2 weeks, but then the possibility of wetter than normal conditions for the next 3 months.

C. James

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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