Slight Chance of Thunderstorm Later this Week

26 September 2018   Dr. Curtis James
Thunderstorms might be in the forecast. 

Forecast Discussion:

With a weak upper-level trough moving from northwest to southeast across the Great Basin and marginal amounts of moisture in Arizona, there were some isolated thundershowers today, mainly from Flagstaff northward and eastward. A slight chance of thunderstorms will persist into tomorrow as the trough swings across the state, but precipitation amounts, if any, will generally be light except in very localized areas.    

From Wednesday – Saturday, the airflow aloft becomes northwesterly, then high pressure builds over Arizona. This will usher in drier air and sinking motions, for mostly clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures. 

By Sunday, the upper high will shift east as a cutoff low is forecast to develop off the California coast, bring temperatures back down to near normal levels and increasing the moisture for possible isolated thundershowers again. Long range forecasts are hinting to the possibility of the remnants of a tropical cyclone moving across the Southwest, which could bring us additional moisture and lifting next Monday and/or Tuesday, for a continued chance of showers or thunderstorms early next week. 

C. James

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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