Major Change in Weather This Week

18 November 2019   Dr. Mark Sinclair
It will be wet and cold this week.

Forecast table: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click.

Weather Discussion:

Major change from beautiful and benignly boring, to boisterous, breathtakingly bracing weather is in the works for this week*. Yes a little literary melodrama here, but what we will see is a change from sunny and mild to rainy and much cooler, starting Tuesday. I’m excited!

Today will be sunny and quite warm, with highs into the mid-seventies. Starting tomorrow Tuesday, expect increasing cloud with rain and isolated thunderstorms setting in late Tuesday and lasting through Thursday. Heaviest precipitation will be from Tuesday evening through Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday will not get out of the upper 40s. This is 20-25 F cooler than we have been experiencing recently. Accumulating snow levels will lower to around 7,000 ft Wednesday night through Thursday, with flurries to lower levels. The weekend looks to be clearing with highs warming up to the mid-50s. Longer term looks to continue unsettled and cool. Enjoy the last of the Indian summer today.

See the attached for more details. As this storm unfolds, also check the HRRR (high-resolution rapid refresh model) products on our website (see below), especially the precipitation totals maps. These are updated every hour. And, of course, check the National Weather Service for any official watches or warnings. I would not be surprised to see some flash flood watches and even flood warnings by Wednesday through Thursday as the ground becomes saturated. Snow impacts above 7,000 ft on I-17 and I-40 near and west of Flagstaff and are a possibility as well.

Additional notes for the weather nuts out there:

This precipitation is associated with a very moist southerly flow ahead of a low pressure system west of Baja that has tapped abundant tropical moisture from the remains of post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond. This low pressure will cross AZ Tuesday-Wednesday. A second colder system will drop southward Wednesday bringing much colder air across the area and dropping snow levels to a rain-snow mix down to 6500 ft, with accumulating snow above 7000 ft.

Have another wonderful week,


*It’s all Mr. Roget’s fault. It’s been a long three months without weather.

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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