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Continued Warm Weather

07 February 2015   Lynne LaMaster
Some high clouds, but warm weather will continue, with unlikely precipitation next week.   Some high clouds, but warm weather will continue, with unlikely precipitation next week.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the Southwest this weekend, for warmer-than-normal conditions to continue. As the ridge axis shifts just to the east of Arizona, expect variable high clouds.  

An upper-level trough will move into California on Monday – Tuesday and produce considerable rainfall over most of California. Later in the week next week, a weak trough will dig southward and cut off from the subtropical jet to the south of Arizona. It appears that skies will remain partly cloudy for the latter part of next week. At this time, it appears that precipitation will be unlikely next week and wind will be generally light.  

C. James


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The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
Weather Discussion:
    High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the Southwest this weekend, for warmer-than-normal conditions to continue. As the ridge axis shifts just to the east of Arizona, expect variable high clouds.  
    An upper-level trough will move into California on Monday – Tuesday and produce considerable rainfall over most of California. Later in the week next week, a weak trough will dig southward and cut off from the subtropical jet to the south of Arizona. It appears that skies will remain partly cloudy for the latter part of next week. At this time, it appears that precipitation will be unlikely next week and wind will be generally light.  
C. James