Wet Weather Saturday - Tuesday

28 February 2015   Dr. Curtis James
Get your rain gear ready!  

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

Another period of wet weather is on its way for late tonight through Tuesday, although precipitation will be most likely on Saturday night – Sunday. Precipitation totals for this event will be around 1 – 1.5”, with over 3” liquid equivalent over the steepest south-facing terrain slopes. Expect increasing scattered light to moderate rain showers and windy conditions on Saturday, with perhaps a quarter inch of rain accumulation. Then, Saturday night to Sunday, expect widespread rainfall to develop, with another inch or more of rain accumulation as a cold frontal rain band practically stalls across the Prescott area.

Sunday night to Monday, expect the rain to taper off and become showery as temperatures and snow levels drop fall behind the cold front. Snow levels will begin around 6,500’ on Saturday but will rise to near 7,500’ on Sunday, then drop back down to near 5,000’ sometime on Monday evening. At the current time, there is some uncertainty in the forecast models as to the possibility for snow accumulation on Tuesday, but it currently appears that the accumulation will be light.

Expect improving and warming weather conditions next Wednesday – Friday as high pressure rebuilds over the Southwest.

C. James

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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