Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Continuing Through Wednesday

20 October 2015   Dr. Curtis James
Clear skies should return later this week. 

The greatest threats are the ongoing possibility for severe thunderstorms and localized flooding this afternoon through early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, expect a continued chance of showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday. 


The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble). 

Weather Discussion:

The air remains quite moist, weakly unstable, and with sufficient wind shear with height to produce isolated severe thunderstorms or lines of strong storms tonight - tomorrow. The possibility for scattered thunderstorms is still possible, a few possible severe…with large hail at least 1” diameter and damaging wind gusts at least 58 mph. Earlier, a severe thunderstorm moved into southeast Yavapai County from northeastern Maricopa County. Currently a line of severe thunderstorms is in the Kingman that appears to be producing large hail is moving toward the northeast. Additional storms could form in the Prescott area tonight or tomorrow , propagating from south-southwest toward the north-northeast at propagation speeds between 20 and 30 mph.

 Another upper-level trough from the Pacific will move across the Southwestern U.S. Tuesday – Wednesday for a lingering chance of showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday. Fair weather will return for Thursday through the weekend.  

C. James




Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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