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Warmer Than Normal

07 January 2015   Dr. Curtis James
It's warming up!


The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

A large ridge of high pressure will prevail over the Southwestern U.S. bringing warmer-than-normal temperatures for the next week or so. However, embedded within the ridge will be a series of weak upper-level low pressure systems that will bring partly cloudy skies for the latter part of the week and the coming weekend. For now it appears that precipitation is unlikely, but depending on the exact position of the upper-level disturbances, there is a remote possibility of rain showers over the weekend that will need to be monitored.

For now, I’m predicting that temperatures will be warmer than normal, skies will be partly cloudy, and winds will be generally light for the next week. Will modify this forecast as necessary.

C. James

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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